The HC Commodities Podcast US Energy Supply, Bottlenecks and Private Equity with Jason Downie
Mar 11, 2026
Jason Downie, Co-founder and Managing Partner at Tailwater Capital, specializes in energy infrastructure and private equity. He discusses Shale 3.0 and how longer laterals and tech gains changed production. He explores AI-driven power demand and why natural gas will underpin reliability. He maps midstream bottlenecks, last-mile needs, and where private capital can plug gaps for LNG and grid growth.
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Transcript
Episode notes
Rig Count No Longer Reflects Shale Productivity
- Rig count is a poor proxy now because efficiency gains (spacing, longer laterals) produce similar output with far fewer rigs.
- Drill spacing unit design and simultaneous zone completion let operators extract more per spacing unit.
AI Data Centers Create Long Duration Gas Demand
- Data centers and AI create a multi-decade demand pull for reliable, routable power where natural gas is the fastest, cost-effective solution.
- Natural gas wins on cost, speed to build and reliability versus nuclear or slow grid interconnects.
LNG Exports Drive A Large Portion Of Future Gas Demand
- Forecasts show huge U.S. gas demand growth driven by LNG exports and electrification, but much of it is under construction and contracted.
- ThunderSed projects ~30 BCF/day by 2035 with ~20 BCF from LNG; U.S. already exports ~17 BCF/day today.