Yet Another Value Podcast Investing in the SaaSpocalypse with Heller House's Marcelo Lima
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Apr 23, 2026 Marcelo Lima, investor and founder of Heller House Capital who follows and backs software companies, joins to debate the so-called SaaSpocalypse. He argues AI often speeds incumbent roadmaps rather than kills them. Short takes cover valuation moves, enterprise moats, headless interfaces, agent limits, real AI tooling costs, and whether AI is infrastructure or replacement.
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Selloff Mispriced Existing AI Progress
- SaaS selloff in early 2025 looked disconnected from on-the-ground AI adoption because many incumbents had been adding AI for years.
- Marcelo had tracked companies since 2018 and used models in parallel, so the January gap-down surprised him given existing AI integration.
AI Amplifies Engineers Not Nonsoftware Companies
- Better generative models primarily amplify incumbent engineering productivity rather than instantly turning non-software firms into elite software builders.
- Marcelo contrasts VW's Cariad disaster and PepsiCo's core competency to argue domain expertise still matters.
Multiples Already Price In Severe Growth Risk
- Valuation compression already discounts significant disruption risk; many SaaS names trade near zero-growth multiples.
- Marcelo uses a 10% discount rate to show that a zero growth terminal implies ~10x multiple, and many stocks are below that.