ABC News Daily Why Trump’s Iran gamble could end very badly
25 snips
Mar 2, 2026 
Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, offers sharp analysis of Middle East politics. He discusses recent escalation between Iran, Israel and regional militias. He explains why regime change without ground forces is unlikely. He outlines risks of widening conflict and disruptive regional fallout.
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Deep Intelligence Penetration Enabled High-Value Strike
- Israel and the US had deep intelligence penetration of Iran that enabled targeted strikes.
- Hussein Ibish says human intelligence inside Iran and senior sources made the killing of Khamenei and other leaders possible.
Bombing Alone Won't Topple Iran
- Regime change by bombing or sanctions is historically unlikely without an occupying force.
- Hussein Ibish notes there's no example of an autocratic regime falling solely from external bombardment or sanctions.
Don't Rely On Regime Change Without Ground Forces
- Expect that regime removal would require boots on the ground, which Trump rules out.
- Hussein Ibish warns Trump and Netanyahu lack willingness to deploy US or Israeli ground forces, undermining the regime-change plan.