Former head of Mossad research division: 'This war motivates Iran to go nuclear'

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Mar 24, 2026

Seema (Sima) Shine, former Mossad officer and national security analyst, breaks down Iran as a resilient system rather than a single-leader state. She discusses how the war could motivate Tehran toward nuclear ambitions. She examines Iran-Hezbollah ties, regional energy risks, and why targeted strikes and pressure may have unintended consequences.

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INSIGHT

Iran Is A System Not A Single Leader

Iran functions as a resilient system rather than a single personality driving policy.
Seema Shine explains targeted killings (Khamenei, others) didn't break coordination because Iran decentralized and prepared contingency structures before the war.

INSIGHT

War Could Boost Iran's Nuclear Resolve

A military campaign that weakens Iran could increase Tehran's motivation to acquire nuclear weapons.
Shine warns that surviving regime elites will see nuclear capability as the only future deterrent against repeat attacks.

INSIGHT

Taking Enriched Material Out Of Iran Is Unrealistic

Removing enriched fissile material from Iran by force is extremely difficult and unlikely.
Shine says a practical path is a negotiated agreement, but Iran is unlikely to accept prewar demands like zero enrichment.

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The U.S.-Israeli goal of initiating war in order to prevent Iran from going nuclear may result in a boomerang effect, according to former senior Mossad official Sima Shine, speaking on the Haaretz Podcast.

After the war, “if the regime stays in power, and there are good chances that it will,” Shine said, it will be far weaker, but it will possess “high emotional revenge” for what it has suffered and reinforce a belief that “only nuclear capability will deter future attacks, and I think they will do anything they can do to get to a nuclear bomb.”

Shine says that Western countries and Israel both fail to understand that “Iran is a system” – not driven by individual leaders, which is why the targeted assassinations of the country’s top officials have not harmed the country as much as expected.

While Iran would surely like the war to end sooner or later, she said, they have staying power and will only do so if they can exact a “high price,” and Tehran’s threats to disrupt world energy markets must be taken seriously.

In her conversation on the podcast, Shine categorized Iran’s hold on Lebanon through Hezbollah as a “tragedy” for Israel’s neighbor. She said it appeared that the strength of Hezbollah when it joined the war in Iran came as a “surprise to Israel. They have more capabilities than we saw before.”

The group, she said, will fight with all they have to preserve their political and military position in Lebanon. A buffer zone in southern Lebanon may be the only way to keep residents of northern Israel safe, “not from rockets and missiles, but from special forces of Hezbollah invading kibbutzim and cities” as Hamas did on October 7.

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