Trumponomics Will the Xi-Trump Summit Be Over Before It Starts?
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May 6, 2026 
Dan Ten Kate, Bloomberg exec editor covering Asia with on-the-ground perspective, and Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg geoeconomics lead and former NSC China-Taiwan director. They debate whether a high-stakes Trump–Xi summit can proceed amid Iran tensions. They unpack China’s orders to ignore US sanctions, rare earth leverage, trade and tariff limits, likely modest deliverables, and how AI and optics shape bargaining.
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Iran War Is A Summit Wildcard
- The Iran war and US sanctions have become central risks to a planned Trump–Xi summit.
- Jennifer Welch says the Iran conflict disrupted energy flows and China’s leverage, making the meeting harder but still useful to avoid wider fallout.
Summit Seen As Low Cost Stability Tool
- Both Beijing and Washington see a low-cost value in holding the summit to preserve stability despite rising frictions.
- Dan Ten Kate argues domestic headwinds and energy disruptions make a face-to-face meeting a pragmatic way to avoid escalations.
China Orders Firms To Defy US Sanctions
- China publicly ordered firms to ignore US sanctions on Iranian-linked refiners, signaling a tougher posture.
- Dan notes this reverses past private compliance and dares Washington to enforce penalties that could roil markets and the relationship.