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Earnings, earnings, earnings! February 18, 2022

Feb 18, 2022
A brisk roundup of this week’s earnings deluge and why expectations matter. Conversations touch on inflation squeezing margins, why high-margin firms weather shocks better, and when low-margin turnarounds can surprise. They debate paying for quality versus overpaying, examine retail and bank sector dynamics, and trace the accelerating shift from coal to renewables.
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INSIGHT

High Margins Reduce But Do Not Eliminate Inflation Risk

  • High gross margins cushion cost inflation but don't make a company immune.
  • Scott noted Fortescue's ~$15–16 cash cost vs ~$100 sale price gives >80% gross margin, so labour/supply inflation matters less than price shifts.
ADVICE

Look For Turnarounds In Low Margin Businesses

  • Focus on margins and whether they can sustainably improve or will be eroded.
  • Andrew explained low-margin businesses can be great turnaround targets if you can credibly raise margins (example: API delivering profit explosion).
INSIGHT

Don't Overpay For Quality Already Priced In

  • Paying a premium for quality risks 'paying twice' if future growth is already priced in.
  • Scott argued high margins and returns often reflect past performance that the market already values into today's price.
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