The Emerging Markets Podcast by Tellimer Tested by Fire, Emerging Markets Come of Age
Mar 17, 2026
Phoenix Kalen, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research at Société Générale and former RBS and JP Morgan analyst. He discusses who wins and loses from higher oil and supply shocks. He explains why market reactions are more contained than in 2022. He covers the rise of local‑currency bond markets, diversification away from dollar assets, and why EMs are becoming standalone investment opportunities.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Oil Exporters Gain From Higher Commodity Prices
- Oil exporters are clear short-to-medium-term winners as higher commodity prices improve terms of trade, current accounts and fiscal positions.
- Phoenix Kalen cites Brazil and Colombia benefiting geopolitically distant from the Middle East and gaining fiscal tailwinds from energy price moves.
Gulf Economies Could Capture Regional Trade
- Geopolitical shifts could concentrate regional trade toward Gulf economies if Iran's capabilities are degraded, boosting Saudi and UAE trade gravity.
- Phoenix Kalen argues reduced Iranian influence would re-route regional networks and benefit Gulf fiscal and trade outcomes.
Import Dependent Asian Economies Are Vulnerable
- Energy‑importing, supply‑chain dependent Asian economies face medium‑term losses from higher oil prices and disruption.
- Phoenix Kalen highlights South Korea and Taiwan as vulnerable due to import dependence and just‑in‑time supply chains.