Fareed Zakaria GPS President Trump Threatens to Blockade the Strait of Hormuz; Former Secretary of State Antony Blinken on His Experience Negotiating with Iran
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Apr 12, 2026 
Anthony Blinken, former U.S. Secretary of State and experienced diplomat. Karen Young, Columbia energy scholar on oil markets and blockade impacts. Tarek Masoud, Harvard expert on Gulf politics. They probe the fragile ceasefire and negotiation limits. They discuss Gulf states recalibrating ties, oil market shocks from blockades, and long timelines for energy and inflationary fallout.
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Tactical Wins But Strategic Setbacks
- Military tactical success can still be a strategic failure if the adversary retains leverage like enriched uranium, missiles, and control over chokepoints.
- Antony Blinken warns the Strait of Hormuz now gives Iran newfound leverage despite battlefield setbacks, shifting the strategic balance.
Face Saver Compromises Can Limit Breakout Risk
- A practical compromise lets Iran nominally claim enrichment rights while restricting quantities and capacity to keep breakout time long.
- Blinken notes the JCPOA model kept enrichment at very low levels so weaponization would take over a year.
Politics Made Reentry To JCPOA Harder
- Returning to the JCPOA was complicated by reduced breakout time and Iranian demand for legal guarantees against future US withdrawal.
- Blinken explains midterms and Iran's insistence on congressional or treaty-level guarantees blocked swift re-entry.