Know Your Risk Podcast Oil Researcher Rory Johnston Explains the Market
Mar 16, 2026
Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com, offers data-driven perspective on global crude and refined product dynamics. He breaks down why prices feel confusing. He lays out production shut-ins and restart timelines. He contrasts crude versus refined shortages and explains regional cash dislocations and export restriction risks.
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Why Traders Expect Oil Markets To Find Workarounds
- The oil market has repeatedly proven resilient by finding workarounds to major shocks over the past five years.
- Rory Johnston cites invasions, sanctions, and shipping attacks since 2021 as reasons traders expect flexibility, which mutes immediate price spikes.
Confirmed Multi‑Million Barrel Shut Ins Already Happened
- About 8.5 million barrels per day of production from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were already shut in during early March.
- Rory warns this is nearly three times the Russian 2022 loss and will take weeks to months to fully restart due to reservoir and operational risks.
Products Are Shorter Than Crude Right Now
- Refined products are already tighter than crude because refineries reduced runs rather than shut completely, extending runway but cutting output.
- Rory notes jet fuel, diesel and even heavy fuel oil are trading at large premiums and inventories in Asia have plunged.