The Exchange Inflation Cools, Metals Dip and the Christmas Countdown is on 10/24/25
Oct 24, 2025
In this discussion, Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, breaks down the recent cooler CPI print and its implications for Fed rate cuts while highlighting trends in corporate layoffs and labor markets. Barry Knapp from Ironside's Macroeconomics shares insights on inflation's impact on fiscal policy and his views on sector positioning, favoring cyclicals over tech. Francisco Blanche of BofA Securities analyzes the recent decline in gold's value and the oil market's dynamics, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies.
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Tariff Pass-Through Is Gradual, Not Explosive
- Guha says tariffs have raised goods inflation but pass-through has been slower and more gradual than feared.
- Firms are absorbing costs via supplier shifts and productivity, so tariff impact may be protracted but less explosive.
Food Distribution For Furloughed Federal Workers
- Emily Wilkins reported 640 food boxes distributed to roughly 300 federal workers who missed paychecks during the shutdown.
- Recipients said they were dipping into savings, seeking part-time work, and facing uncertainty about future paychecks.
Fiscal Spending Fueled 2021 Inflation
- Barry Knapp links fiscal spending to the inflation surge in 2021 and notes recent fiscal cooling helps explain current lower inflation.
- He argues the Fed underestimates fiscal policy's role when assessing inflation dynamics.