Coffee and a Mike Theodore Postol #1347
Apr 3, 2026
Theodore Postol, MIT professor and analyst of missile and national security issues. He discusses Iranian missile performance, tactics to deplete defenses, and how strikes changed since June. He examines radar and shelter vulnerabilities, regional escalation risks, and the broader roles of China, Russia, and U.S. strategy.
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Early Warning Radars Were Taken Out Early In The War
- Iran rapidly disabled long-range ballistic missile defense radars (including four THAAD) within days, degrading early warning.
- Loss of early-warning radars left many impacts occurring with little or no civilian notice.
Early Warning Greatly Reduces Casualties
- Postol contrasted V‑1 vs V‑2 WWII casualties to show how early warning reduces deaths significantly.
- Ballistic missiles without warning (like V‑2 analogs) produced far higher casualties than audible cruise-like threats.
Bigger Warheads Challenge Existing Civil Defenses
- Improved warhead sizes (1.5–2 tons) and limited warning have caused structural collapses despite Israel's strict construction and safe-room standards.
- Deep underground shelters still save many lives unless directly hit.