Foreign Policy Live Is the Nuclear Club Expanding?
Feb 18, 2026
Rafael Grossi, director-general of the IAEA and seasoned nonproliferation diplomat, discusses the fracturing nuclear order. He outlines fallout from New START's expiry. He flags modern delivery systems complicating arms control. He warns that more nuclear-armed states would spur regional races and instability.
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New START's Loss Reduces Strategic Predictability
- The expiration of New START reduces predictability between major nuclear powers even if arsenals won't change immediately.
- New technologies and new delivery systems mean any future instrument must cover more than warhead counts.
More Countries Now Technically Able To Go Nuclear
- Technological progress makes many more countries technically capable of acquiring nuclear weapons.
- Public rhetoric by officials in once-committed NPT states signals a disturbing trend toward reconsidering nonproliferation norms.
Horizontal Proliferation Raises Risk Of Nuclear Use
- Widespread horizontal proliferation risks regional escalation and could increase the chance of nuclear use.
- A slippery slope of neighbors copying each other would unravel existing nonproliferation rules.