Unchained Bits + Bips: What Iran, Oil Shocks, and No Rate Cuts Mean for Crypto
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Mar 23, 2026 Laurens Fraussen, research analyst at Kaiko who studies crypto liquidity and derivatives, breaks down collapsing liquidity and a quiet geographic shift in buyers. He covers perp funding, options flow, and why markets barely reacted to SEC/CFTC guidance. Laurens also explores agentic commerce, its payment implications, and the security and stability challenges for machine-driven payments.
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Liquidity Drop Explains Bitcoin's Volatility
- Bitcoin's market stability has weakened because liquidity and volumes have fallen sharply since October 10th.
- Kaiko data shows market depth down ~40–50%, average 1% mid-price liquidity fell from $25M to $15M and volumes are ~30–40% lower.
ETF Flows And Short Squeezes Drove Recent Rallies
- Recent BTC rallies were driven by short squeezes and a stabilization of institutional ETF flows rather than a rebuilt liquidity base.
- Open interest fell from $35B pre-October to ~$15B now, so confidence and depth must recover before declaring a new structural uptrend.
Asia Is Buying While US and EU Keep Selling
- Geographic flows have shifted: Asia moved from net selling to net buying while US and EU sessions remain net sellers.
- Kaiko shows Asia cumulative returns per session up ~0.2% versus EU/US down ~11–12%, and Coinbase premium still influences price moves.