Energy Unplugged by Aurora

EP. 283 Offshore Wind Reset: Duncan Clark on What Comes Next

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Apr 3, 2026
Nick Civetta, project leader and offshore wind modeller, breaks down auction results, grid impacts and deployment forecasts. Duncan Clark, Renewable UK board member and ex-Ørsted Europe head, offers sector-wide perspective on policy, markets and delivery. They discuss the economic reset in offshore wind, delivery and grid bottlenecks, floating wind prospects, auction dynamics and AI/data‑centre demand as a wildcard.
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INSIGHT

Macro Shock Reset Offshore Wind Costs

  • Offshore wind economics were reshaped by a rapid rise in interest rates and double-digit inflation that increased supply‑chain capex by ~40% in two years.
  • Duncan Clark points to OEM pricing power, longer lead times, and supply chains restoring profitability as structural drivers.
INSIGHT

Grid Constraints Are A Major Delivery Risk

  • Grid access and transmission constraints are a growing delivery risk that could double system curtailment to ~23 TWh by the end of the decade.
  • Nick Civetta warns North Scottish boundaries could face constraints up to 56% of the time within three years, stressing reinforcement timing.
INSIGHT

AR7 Reset Prices And Market Power

  • AR7 awarded 8.2 GW at ~£91/MWh for English/Welsh projects with RWE winning ~82% of capacity, reshaping competitive dynamics.
  • RWE's portfolio bidding (including Dogger Bank) and market power influenced other developers' strategies, says Nick Civetta.
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