
Energy Unplugged by Aurora EP. 283 Offshore Wind Reset: Duncan Clark on What Comes Next
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Apr 3, 2026 Nick Civetta, project leader and offshore wind modeller, breaks down auction results, grid impacts and deployment forecasts. Duncan Clark, Renewable UK board member and ex-Ørsted Europe head, offers sector-wide perspective on policy, markets and delivery. They discuss the economic reset in offshore wind, delivery and grid bottlenecks, floating wind prospects, auction dynamics and AI/data‑centre demand as a wildcard.
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Macro Shock Reset Offshore Wind Costs
- Offshore wind economics were reshaped by a rapid rise in interest rates and double-digit inflation that increased supply‑chain capex by ~40% in two years.
- Duncan Clark points to OEM pricing power, longer lead times, and supply chains restoring profitability as structural drivers.
Grid Constraints Are A Major Delivery Risk
- Grid access and transmission constraints are a growing delivery risk that could double system curtailment to ~23 TWh by the end of the decade.
- Nick Civetta warns North Scottish boundaries could face constraints up to 56% of the time within three years, stressing reinforcement timing.
AR7 Reset Prices And Market Power
- AR7 awarded 8.2 GW at ~£91/MWh for English/Welsh projects with RWE winning ~82% of capacity, reshaping competitive dynamics.
- RWE's portfolio bidding (including Dogger Bank) and market power influenced other developers' strategies, says Nick Civetta.
