FiveThirtyEight Politics A 538 Election Road Trip
Oct 17, 2024
Join Jeffrey Skelly, a Senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, Ruth Egelnik, the New York Times polling editor, and Nathaniel Rakich, another Senior analyst at FiveThirtyEight, as they navigate the intricate landscape of down-ballot races. They humorously dissect shifting voter trends and unique campaign strategies, such as Jared Golden's re-election bid in Maine. The discussion also includes the rise of ranked choice voting in Alaska and the intense competition in California's House race. Buckle up for insights that go beyond the presidential spotlight!
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Midwest Senate Races
- Democratic Senate candidates in the upper Midwest are overperforming Harris, while Republicans underperform Trump.
- This is potentially due to incumbency advantage and ticket-splitting.
Redistricting Impact
- Redistricting in Louisiana and Alabama likely adds two Democratic House seats.
- Republicans are guaranteed at least three seats in North Carolina due to redistricting.
Texas Down-Ballot Races
- Democrats have high hopes for down-ballot races in Texas, particularly for Ted Cruz's Senate seat.
- Colin Allred is challenging Cruz, but winning remains a significant hurdle.