Bulwark Takes Trump & Hegseth Are Increasingly Delusional on Hormuz; TACO Incoming? | Morning Chaser
Mar 31, 2026
Bill Kristol, political analyst and editor-at-large of The Bulwark, offers a sharp take on Iran and U.S. policy. They unpack risks around the Strait of Hormuz and how shipping disruptions ripple through global oil markets. Conversation covers limits of military action, political fallout for Trump and allies, and possible pathways short of full escalation.
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Hormuz Closure Is Becoming A Prolonged Global Shock
- The Strait of Hormuz closure has shifted from a short-term disruption to a sustained supply shock.
- Shipping dropped from ~138 vessels/day to 181 vessels in March, causing shortages in Asia and pushing oil above $100/barrel.
Bombing Won't Bring Merchant Ships Back
- Military strikes degrade Iran's weapons but do not restore commercial confidence in Hormuz.
- Iran exerts economic control by permitting ships selectively and demanding payments, so a few escorted vessels don't reopen trade.
Ground Troops Would Be Insufficient Or Catastrophic
- A full military solution would require massive ground forces and still might not solve insurance and commercial hesitancy.
- Experts say only a large-scale invasion or regime change could force durable reopening, not limited escorts.