The Decibel Prediction trading is coming to Canada
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Mar 30, 2026 Meera Raman, a retirement and financial planning reporter at The Globe and Mail, explains Wealthsimple’s new approval to offer forecast contracts in Canada and the unique regulatory landscape. She walks through how prediction trading works, what types of markets may be allowed, and why regulators are cautious about consumer protection and gambling risks.
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How Prediction Trading Contracts Work
- Prediction trading are yes/no contracts that trade like financial assets with prices implying probability.
- Example: buying a yes contract at $0.30 pays $1 if correct, so price equals implied 30% chance and can be resold as news arrives.
Large Polymarket Trade Raised Insider Concerns
- A high-profile Polymarket trade made over US$400,000 on Venezuelan president Maduro being removed from power.
- The trade raised insider-trading concerns because the anonymous bettor profited on a geopolitical event, sparking scrutiny.
Canada Permits Forecast Contracts With Tight Limits
- Wealthsimple received CIRO approval to offer forecast contracts but with strict content limits.
- Allowed buckets are economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends; sports and political questions are excluded.