The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast When will the Bitcoin Bear Market End? w/ Rational Root
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Feb 11, 2026 Rational Root, a bitcoin on-chain analyst and newsletter author, returns to map where bitcoin sits in the cycle. He explains spiral charts and why bottoms often land later in cycles. He explores on-chain bearish signals, short-term holder bands, realized-price downside scenarios, diminishing returns, and what could snap scarcity back into place for the next major bull run.
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Realized Price And Downside Scenarios
- Realized price sits near $55k and historically price has dipped below realized but with diminishing severity.
- Passive buyers (treasuries, El Salvador) may limit downside so a shallow breach near $50k is plausible but not guaranteed.
Macro Correlation Has Grown
- Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets has grown as institutional participation increased, weakening halving-only narratives.
- The business cycle can influence timing, but Bitcoin has historically dropped before equities despite rough correlations.
Gold Rally Reflects Pessimism, Not Bitcoin Demand
- Gold's current RSI sits near historic highs driven by pessimism and trust loss in fiat, not the same drivers as Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin behaves as an optimism-driven, liquidity-led asset and may not act like gold even if both are monetary assets.