Plain English with Derek Thompson Midterm Election FAQ: Can We Trust the Polls? Are Democrats Doomed?
Oct 25, 2022
Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights, shares her insights on the midterm elections. She discusses the rising challenges in polling accuracy and the impact of declining survey responses. The conversation dives into pivotal Senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania, exploring candidates' chances and the influence of third-party candidates. Anderson also addresses the paradox of Republican trust in Donald Trump despite past electoral setbacks, shaping current electoral dynamics.
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Republican Underrepresentation
- Republicans are underrepresented because they are more likely to be non-college-educated and have low social trust.
- These groups are less likely to participate in polls.
Improving Polling
- Use diverse contact methods (text, online, etc.) and short questionnaires to improve response rates.
- Leverage voter files to identify likely voters and adjust for non-response bias.
Political Gravity
- "Fundamentals" such as presidential approval and economic conditions exert a pull on political outcomes.
- Major events can disrupt these forces temporarily, but they eventually reassert themselves.