On The Market 47: 80% of US Housing Is Overvalued, But Where Will Prices Drop the Most? w/Cris deRitis
US housing markets have started to shift. The massive run-up in home prices eventually led us to high interest rates, high inflation, and a generation of renters who can’t afford to buy, even with price cuts. This should come as no surprise, as Moody's Analytics estimates that some eighty percent of real estate markets are overvalued. Of those markets, where are the opportunities to invest the highest as prices naturally start to decline?
Instead of speculating, we brought Cris deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, onto the show to explain why this is happening, what his team is forecasting, and how investors like us can stay prepared. Cris and his team diligently look through data to predict how the housing market will move. He knows that it’ll take time for the market to finally reach equilibrium again. But, unfortunately, this may not happen any time soon.
Cris’s team is focusing on looking at a few things: demographics, supply, and demand. Each influences the others severely and leaves hints at where the housing market is headed next. Dave and James tag-team this episode, touching on whether US housing will become even more unaffordable, long-term home supply predictions, affordable housing, and a demand drop-off that could end real estate investing over the next decade.
In This Episode We Cover
Overvalued housing markets and why most homes in the US aren’t worth the price
How to forecast housing market movements and the most important factors to look for
Whether or not the US will end up like other countries with astronomical home prices
Home price drops and how bad it could get in the most overvalued cities
Which real estate markets will still see price growth in the coming months/years
The myth of affordable housing and why everyone (and no one) wants to build it
Population drop-offs, demand shifts, and other future events that could kill the housing market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums
Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel
Book Mentioned in the Show
Real Estate by Numbers by Dave Meyer & J Scott (Use Code “DAVE” For 10% Off!)
Connect with Cris:
Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-47
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