Schwab Network The Calm Before the Oil Price Storm?
Mar 6, 2026
Ellen Wald, PhD, energy analyst and author specializing in Middle East oil markets. She breaks down why crude prices stay calm despite Strait of Hormuz tensions. She explains halted tanker traffic, global inventory buffers, Saudi rerouting, and why long-term damage to refineries could trigger a sharp price spike. The conversation focuses on duration risk and infrastructure vulnerability.
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Markets Are Calm Because Past Shocks Repeatedly Reversed
- Oil markets have reacted restrained despite escalating attacks because past incidents faded once actual movement risk proved limited.
- Ellen Wald points to earlier summer spikes that quickly reversed when traders realized oil transit remained largely secure, muting panic this time.
Stoppage Is Voluntary Not A Physical Blockade
- The real disruption is voluntary stoppage of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rather than a physical blockade.
- Wald notes vessels avoid the route due to missile, drone and environmental risk even though Iran hasn't closed the strait itself.
Inventories And Rerouting Are Buffering Prices
- Global inventories and flexible exporters have provided a short-term cushion against price spikes.
- Wald highlights Saudi shifts to other ports and use of storage have helped satisfy demand while traffic is reduced.