Kook's Weekly, January 25 - Terawave Theories, FCC Green Lights, and The Flaw in the Bear Case

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Jan 26, 2026

They break down FM2 launch risk and why recent test issues no longer spell disaster. FCC momentum for Direct-to-Device tech and the likely global regulatory domino effect get close attention. TerraWave is framed as complementary infrastructure, not a rival. They challenge the bear thesis on white-label MNO partnerships versus Direct-to-Consumer models.

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ADVICE

Watch FCC Moves As Regulatory Green Light

Expect FCC approval to be a critical de-risking event and not just symbolic commentary.
Monitor FCC actions closely as they often precede global regulator adoption and commercialization certainty.

INSIGHT

Bears Shift From Approval Risk To TAM Debates

Regulatory objections that once dominated the bear case have mostly dissolved as approvals progressed.
The bear narrative shifted from 'won't be approved' to 'market isn't big enough.'

INSIGHT

Why White-Label Beats DTC For Mobile

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) works for fixed broadband but not for mobile DTC tethered to MNO cores.
White-label partnerships with MNOs provide massive distribution advantages and lower customer-acquisition costs.

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In this episode of The KOOK Report, we navigate the recent market volatility and discuss why "knowing what you own" is the ultimate defense against short-term price whipsaws. We dive deep into the latest developments surrounding AST Spacemobile (ASTS), government contracts, and the shifting landscape of the space industry.

Episode Highlights:

FM2 & Risk Profile: A look at the upcoming Flight Model 2 launch on Blue Origin’s New Glenn. We discuss why a launch anomaly is no longer a catastrophic risk for the company but merely a minor nuisance, signaling a massive de-risking of operations.
Regulatory Momentum: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr is "geeking out" over Direct-to-Device (DTC) technology. We analyze why FCC approval is imminent, why it serves as a global green light for other nations, and how it solidifies the path to commercialization.
The Terrawave Connection: Blue Origin announced its "Terrawave" orbital transport backbone. We debunk the fear that this is a competitor to ASTS. Instead, we connect the dots between Terrawave, the cancellation of government programs like Milnet, and how these systems are likely complementary pieces of a future space-based data infrastructure.
Busting the Bear Thesis: We dissect Peter Adderton’s criticism that ASTS’s "white label" B2B strategy is flawed compared to Starlink’s brand. The episode argues the opposite: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) models suffer from massive customer acquisition costs, while ASTS’s partnership model with MNOs (like AT&T) provides an unbeatable distribution monopoly akin to owning the App Store.
Starlink Struggles: Key executives are departing Starlink’s DTC division, and Starship faces continued testing hurdles. We discuss what this means for the competitive landscape.
Analyst Wars: A comparison of Scotiabank’s confusing bearish persistence against Deutsche Bank’s recent upgrade and $137 price target, highlighting the growing institutional recognition of government revenue potential.
The Space Mob: Reflections on Crossroads Capital’s report and the unique nature of the "Space Mob" as a market-driven expert network with skin in the game.

Tune in for a deep dive into the "Jungle" of space investing, where we separate the signal from the macro noise.