Odd Lots Jeff Currie on Why Copper Is His Highest-Conviction Trade Ever
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May 17, 2024 
In this insightful discussion, Jeff Currie, the Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at the Carlyle Group and a seasoned commodities analyst, shares why copper is his top investment pick. He delves into the rising demand for copper due to the electrification trend, juxtaposed with long-term supply challenges. Currie highlights the critical role of technological advancements and green initiatives in driving this demand. He also discusses shifts in the oil market and the geopolitical implications of changing energy dynamics.
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Copper and China's Property Market
- Investor hesitancy regarding China's property market downturn slowed copper's price increase in prior years.
- Renewed confidence in green capex as a driver, despite China's property woes, is changing investor sentiment.
M&A Activity in Mining
- Anglo-American's bidding on BHP illustrates that acquiring existing companies is cheaper than new mining investments.
- This M&A activity mirrors the start of the 2000s supercycle, suggesting higher prices are needed to incentivize greenfield investments.
Impact of Copper Prices
- Higher copper prices will eventually trigger investment, but significant price increases are needed to instill confidence.
- The 2000s supercycle demonstrates a phased price response, with initial increases creating conviction and subsequent cost inflation driving further gains.