EP 022: The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela

🎧 The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela | with Venezuelan-American, Danny Pidert Hernández | Pitch The PMAfter the U.S. extracted Maduro, investors scrambled to re-underwrite the LatAm energy map.Doug Garber sits down with Danny Pidert Hernández — hedge fund manager, Venezuelan-American, and boots-on-the-ground LatAm research pro — to break down the real variant play emerging post-Maduro: Colombian energy equities.Danny has spent years mapping the politics, channel checking with petroleum engineers, and tracking who actually controls oil, roadways, and dollars in the region. The result? A high-signal discussion on regime change, risk-reward math, and why names like $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC may be on the verge of a growth re-rate if Colombia flips right in May.

🔍 Checklist Angles:Mispricing: Names like $GPRK & $PXT trade like melting ice cubes — priced for no permits, no growth, and political paralysis.

Catalyst: Colombia’s May election could end Petro’s anti-fossil policies and reignite fracking + exploration.

Variant View: Regime risk is priced in, but upside from production normalization is not. Names could re-rate under a Colombian regime change.

On the Ground Evidence: Danny met directly with field ops + engineers during a recent month long field research trip.💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access🧭

CHAPTERS

[00:00] – Intro & Danny’s Background Dual citizen, former PM, born in Caracas, trained on GS trading desk. Why he fled Venezuela under Chavez and what he sees now on the ground.

[06:55] – Venezuela Today: A Collapsed State GDP -80%, oil down 90%, 8M+ people fled. Why Maduro’s fall is symbolic — and why Diosdado Cabello & Padrino López still hold the real power.

[08:39] – What the U.S. Must Do Next Venezuela remains uninvestable. Chevron is the only major still there. Exxon & Total want no part until full government reset and seized asset compensation.

[14:49] – Chevron’s Underappreciated Edge Operating at low utilization — could boost production 2x without new capex. What’s holding it back? Sanctions, diluent imports, and deal optics.

[17:00] – Who Benefits From Venezuela Reopening? Chevron, Valero, Schlumberger? Yes — but moves may be priced in. Danny walks through which tickers are most levered to LatAm oil upside.

[21:44] – Colombia Is the Lateral Trade Petro’s anti-oil regime is ending. May election likely flips government to pro-business. Colombia could be the real winner from Venezuela chaos.

[24:21] – Field Research: Colombian Oil Stocks Why $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC are the better growth bet. Danny met directly with engineers and ops teams to verify asset quality and roadmap.

[27:27] – Catalysts + Tickers to Watch Election in May is the main clock. Right-wing win unlocks fracking and permits. Stocks still price in regime risk, not recovery.

[44:15] – Hair on the Story: What Could Go Wrong? Asset decline curves, protest blockades, political manipulation. What investors need to underwrite before sizing up the trade.

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This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.