TBPN FULL INTERVIEW: Alex Epstein on The Oil Market’s Biggest Geopolitical Threat
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Mar 10, 2026 
Alex Epstein, author and energy policy analyst who champions pragmatic fossil fuel strategies. He discusses the Iran conflict’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz and why that chokepoint could trigger global oil shocks. Conversation covers why rerouting is impractical, options to keep the Strait open, allied convoys and insurance schemes, spare capacity limits, SPR constraints, and deeper Canada energy ties.
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Strait Of Hormuz Is A Critical Single Chokepoint
- 20% of the world's oil flows daily through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a single chokepoint with no true replacement.
- Losing that route would dramatically raise prices because alternate routes only cover small millions of barrels per day.
Lead Protected Convoys With Allies
- Keep the Strait open either by quickly defeating hostile control or by leading protected convoys with allied participation.
- Use allied navies, credible military threats, and an insurance vehicle to create confidence for commercial shipping.
Suicide Drones Create Cost Asymmetry
- Iran's most disruptive tactics include mines, missiles, and especially long‑range suicide drones that can be launched from trucks.
- Drones are decentralized and cheap to deploy, creating a cost‑asymmetry against expensive defenses.