Ask The Compound

What’s the Worst Asset Class for the Next 5 Years?

24 snips
Mar 18, 2026
Guest
Nick Maggiuli
Nick Maggiulli, data-driven finance writer and author of Of Dollars and Data, joins to debate private markets versus U.S. housing. He explores why private assets might struggle and dives into regional housing risks and demographic effects. They unpack buy-borrow-die mechanics, a 7.25% guaranteed offer dilemma, solvency concerns, and tax and account tradeoffs in short, lively conversations.
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INSIGHT

Private Markets Face Liquidity And Marking Risk

  • Private assets face mounting liquidity and valuation stress as exits and IPOs dry up.
  • Nick Maggiulli and Ben Carlson point to growing long-held private equity positions and marked-up VC IRRs that lack real exit-based verification.
INSIGHT

Housing More Likely To Stagnate Than Collapse

  • U.S. housing is likelier to stagnate than crash because political and seller frictions limit large price drops.
  • Ben Carlson highlights stretched price-to-income ratios, but expects owners' reluctance and local dynamics to mute sharp declines.
ADVICE

Only Use Buy Borrow Die With Significant Wealth And Caution

  • Use buy‑borrow‑die only if you truly understand costs, borrowing rates, and estate implications.
  • Ben Carlson and Nick Maggiulli warn it's for very wealthy people and requires capped borrowing to avoid margin risk.
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