249: Thematic Investing in 2026: AI, Defense, Infrastructure, and the Next Phase of Market Transformation

Feb 13, 2026

Jay Jacobs, Head of U.S. Equity ETFs at BlackRock, brings quick, market-focused perspective. He explores AI as a usage-driven story, the rising role of infrastructure and its physical constraints, and how geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping defense and supply chains. Short, sharp takes on where thematic forces may concentrate capital in 2026.

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INSIGHT

Themes Reshape Portfolio Lenses

Thematic investing captures megaforces that cut across sectors and styles and are reshaping portfolios.
These converging themes make risks and opportunities harder to diversify away from than traditional sector or style frameworks.

INSIGHT

Megaforces Have Economy‑Wide Reach

The scale of megaforces like AI and geopolitical shifts is massive and economy-wide, making thematic lenses useful.
Convergence of these forces amplifies market impacts and investor focus on themes.

INSIGHT

Tokens Are The New Commodity

Tokens are a unit of compute that power AI usage and can be thought of like oil for the 21st century economy.
Rapid token consumption growth signals more and more complex AI tasks and rising demand for compute infrastructure.

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Thematic investing is increasingly shaping how investors interpret markets heading into 2026, as artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, and infrastructure constraints intersect across the global economy.

Jay Jacobs, Head of U.S. Equity ETFs at BlackRock, joins Oscar to discuss why mega forces are becoming harder to ignore—and harder to diversify away from—than in past market cycles. Their conversation explores how AI investing is evolving from a growth narrative into one focused on usage intensity, how national security considerations are reshaping the definition of defense, and why physical infrastructure is emerging as a critical market constraint.

Key insights include:

· Why thematic investing is gaining relevance alongside sector and style frameworks

· How AI usage intensity reframes the AI investment conversation

· Where infrastructure and energy constraints may influence adoption timelines

· How geopolitical fragmentation is expanding the definition of defense

· Why overlapping mega forces may shape market outcomes into 2026

Key moments in this episode:

00:00 Introduction to Thematic Investing in 2026: AI and Market Forces

00:40 The Rise of Thematic Investing

01:43 Deep Dive into AI's Market Impact

05:22 Understanding Token Consumption

07:55 Evaluating AI Investments

11:12 Geopolitical Fragmentation and Defense

13:51 Infrastructure's Evolving Role

16:42 Future of AI and Broader Implications

18:38 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Thematic investing, AI investing, Capital markets, Infrastructure, Megaforces, Stock market trends, Geopolitical fragmentation, Defense spending

Sources: iShares Thematic Outlook, 2026

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