Oh The Humanity!

Jan 17, 2025

Explore the S&P 500's post-election performance, with predictions of rising bond yields and the impact of Federal Reserve policies. Delve into the contrasting fortunes of JPMorgan and Citibank, alongside the challenges faced by luxury brands like Richemont. The hosts provide insights into gold, Bitcoin, and bond market dynamics, highlighting investment strategies amidst volatility. Finally, they wrap up with spirited predictions for upcoming football playoff matchups, analyzing key players and coaching strategies.

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INSIGHT

Artificial Market

Government intervention and quantitative easing have created an artificial market environment.
This makes it difficult to determine the true strength of the economy and its ability to handle higher rates.

INSIGHT

High Valuations

Current market valuations, including the Shiller PE ratio, are historically high, similar to levels seen before market crashes.
Passive investing, which ignores traditional valuation metrics, may be delaying an inevitable correction.

INSIGHT

Bank Valuations

JP Morgan trades at a significantly higher premium than Citibank, despite potential credit issues looming.
Guy Adami questions the high premium on JP Morgan and suggests caution in the banking sector.

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Guy Adami and Danny Moses explore the performance of the S&P 500 post-election. The duo analyze the implications of tax cuts, tariff scares, and bond yields, with Guy predicting ten-year yields will reach 5% by the Super Bowl. The conversation evaluates the impact of Federal Reserve policies, bond market activities, and Jerome Powell's tenure on financial markets. Danny delves into the challenges faced by the bond market since 2007-08 and the fine line between economic growth and higher interest rates. Shifting gears, they discuss the valuations of major banks and the disparity in market perceptions of JPMorgan and Citibank. The episode also examines the performance of luxury brands like Richemont amidst stark economic realities, and wraps up with insights on gold, Bitcoin, and the potential market implications of Hindenburg Research's closure. The hosts then preview upcoming football games, providing their thoughts and predictions for the weekend's matchups.

Further Reading

Buying These Bond Funds Might Just Be the ‘Dumbest Trade You Can Make’ (Barrons)
Cartier Owner Richemont’s Sales Beat Buoys Luxury Stocks (WSJ)
Short Seller Nate Anderson Says He’s Disbanding Hindenburg (Bloomberg)

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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