The Bunker – News without the nonsense Is Trump vs Iran just a re-run of Bush’s war on Iraq?
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Mar 11, 2026 Renad Mansour, a Chatham House Middle East expert and co-creator of BBC Two’s Once Upon a Time in Iraq, analyzes parallels between an attack on Iran and the 2003 Iraq war. He discusses shock-and-awe rhetoric, unclear war aims and administration chaos. He examines regional spillover, arming proxies and the human cost across Iran, Lebanon and Iraq.
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No Postwar Plan Or Proxy Government Exists
- Unlike 2003, the U.S. now lacks pre-war opposition networks or exile governments to install after regime collapse.
- Mansour contrasts 2003 CIA planning and Iraqi opposition work with today's near-zero planning for postwar governance.
They Learned Not To Invade But Not How To Build States
- A clear lesson learned is avoid large-scale invasions; the lesson ignored is that airpower cannot create a viable post-regime government.
- Mansour cites Libya 2011 as a warning that degrading a regime militarily won't produce stable governance.
Airstrikes Won't Turn Civilians Into Proxies For Regime Change
- Bombing to prompt domestic uprising misreads public cost of attacks; civilians hit by strikes won't welcome foreign-backed regime change.
- Mansour notes protests existed prewar but gives the example of 150 schoolgirls killed that day to show civilian backlash.