The Decibel How the war in Iran exposes the limits of China’s influence
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Mar 26, 2026 James Griffiths, Asia correspondent for The Globe and Mail reporting on geopolitics and energy in Hong Kong. He explores Asia’s heavy reliance on Gulf oil and migrant labor. He examines why China’s ties to Iran have not translated into influence. He discusses economic shocks, risks to manufacturing and remittance-dependent countries.
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China Buys Most Iranian Oil But Isn't Dependent On It
- China is Iran's biggest buyer of shipped oil but Iranian oil is a small slice of China's total energy mix.
- Beijing can replace Iranian supplies with Saudi, UAE or heavily discounted Russian crude, so Iran depends on China more than vice versa.
Middle East War Threatens US China Rapprochement
- The Iran war disrupted a fragile US–China rapprochement and delayed high-level visits.
- Trump delaying his China trip and public tensions increase the risk that progress on trade and talks unravels amid the conflict.
Beijing Leans Into A Peacebroker Image
- China frames itself as a promoter of peace while portraying the US as a source of chaos.
- Beijing criticizes strikes yet avoids direct intervention, reinforcing its image to the Global South as stability-focused.