#1187 Peter Turchin: The Collapse of Complex Societies, Elite Overproduction, and Social Unrest

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Dec 11, 2025

In this discussion, Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist and author, explores the dynamics behind the rise and fall of complex societies. He delves into the concept of elite overproduction and its link to social unrest, providing insights into rising inequality and its historical context. Turchin also forecasts potential political upheavals in the 2020s and examines the revolutionary movements, particularly the MAGA phenomenon, as a counter-elite response. He suggests reforms for nonviolent resolution of political conflict, drawing lessons from past redistribution efforts.

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INSIGHT

History Shows 200–300 Year Instability Waves

Historical data show recurring centuries-long boom-bust waves of political violence.
Turchin's group documents lethal political events clustering roughly every 200–300 years.

INSIGHT

Too Many Aspirants Break Political Systems

Elite overproduction occurs when elite aspirants far outnumber available power positions.
Frustrated aspirants form counter-elites who drive revolutions and major crises.

INSIGHT

Wealth Pumped Up Elites Since 1970s

Since the 1970s US productivity rose while wages stagnated, shifting wealth upward.
That produced mass immiseration plus a tenfold rise in very wealthy elites and credential overproduction.

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Dr. Peter Turchin is Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut in the departments of ecology and evolutionary biology, anthropology, and mathematics. He is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna and a research associate at the School of Anthropology at the University of Oxford. He is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call cliodynamics. He is the author of books like War and Peace and War, Ages of Discord, Ultrasociety, End Times, and The Great Holocene Transformation.

In this episode, we start by talking about what causes political communities to cohere, and what causes the collapse of complex societies. We discuss the phenomenon of elite overproduction, its social and political consequences, and modern elite overproduction since the late 1970s. We talk about social unrest in the US and Western Europe in the current decade. Finally, we discuss whether violence is inevitable, and how we can solve elite overproduction in a non-violent way.

A HUGE THANK YOU TO MY PATRONS/SUPPORTERS: PER HELGE LARSEN, BERNARDO SEIXAS, ADAM KESSEL, MATTHEW WHITINGBIRD, ARNAUD WOLFF, TIM HOLLOSY, HENRIK AHLENIUS, ROBERT WINDHAGER, RUI INACIO, ZOOP, MARCO NEVES, COLIN HOLBROOK, PHIL KAVANAGH, SAMUEL ANDREEFF, FRANCIS FORDE, TIAGO NUNES, FERGAL CUSSEN, HAL HERZOG, NUNO MACHADO, JONATHAN LEIBRANT, JOÃO LINHARES, STANTON T, SAMUEL CORREA, ERIK HAINES, MARK SMITH, JOÃO EIRA, TOM HUMMEL, SARDUS FRANCE, DAVID SLOAN WILSON, YACILA DEZA-ARAUJO, ROMAIN ROCH, YANICK PUNTER, CHARLOTTE BLEASE, NICOLE BARBARO, ADAM HUNT, PAWEL OSTASZEWSKI, NELLEKE BAK, GUY MADISON, GARY G HELLMANN, SAIMA AFZAL, ADRIAN JAEGGI, PAULO TOLENTINO, JOÃO BARBOSA, JULIAN PRICE, HEDIN BRØNNER, FRANCA BORTOLOTTI, GABRIEL PONS CORTÈS, URSULA LITZCKE, SCOTT, ZACHARY FISH, TIM DUFFY, SUNNY SMITH, JON WISMAN, WILLIAM BUCKNER, LUKE GLOWACKI, GEORGIOS THEOPHANOUS, CHRIS WILLIAMSON, PETER WOLOSZYN, DAVID WILLIAMS, DIOGO COSTA, ALEX CHAU, CORALIE CHEVALLIER, BANGALORE ATHEISTS, LARRY D. LEE JR., OLD HERRINGBONE, MICHAEL BAILEY, DAN SPERBER, ROBERT GRESSIS, JEFF MCMAHAN, JAKE ZUEHL, MARK CAMPBELL, TOMAS DAUBNER, LUKE NISSEN, KIMBERLY JOHNSON, JESSICA NOWICKI, LINDA BRANDIN, VALENTIN STEINMANN, ALEXANDER HUBBARD, BR, JONAS HERTNER, URSULA GOODENOUGH, DAVID PINSOF, SEAN NELSON, MIKE LAVIGNE, JOS KNECHT, LUCY, MANVIR SINGH, PETRA WEIMANN, CAROLA FEEST, MAURO JÚNIOR, 航豊川, TONY BARRETT, NIKOLAI VISHNEVSKY, STEVEN GANGESTAD, TED FARRIS, HUGO B., JAMES, JORDAN MANSFIELD, CHARLOTTE ALLEN, PETER STOYKO, DAVID TONNER, LEE BECK, PATRICK DALTON-HOLMES, NICK KRASNEY, RACHEL ZAK, DENNIS XAVIER, CHINMAYA BHAT, AND RHYS!

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