Breaking Down: Collapse Daily Episode 124 - New Research on Tipping Points
Mar 3, 2026
New research warns multiple climate tipping points could be crossed before global warming hits 1.5°C. They compare short overshoots versus high peaks and highlight fast and slow system responses like reefs versus ice sheets. The discussion covers cascading feedbacks from deforestation and permafrost, the narrow window to act, and the daunting limits and risks of large-scale carbon removal and geoengineering.
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Multiple Tipping Points Below 2°C Are Plausible
- New Exeter review finds up to eight Earth system tipping points could be crossed below 2°C, some potentially below 1.5°C.
- Tipping elements named include coral reefs, Amazon, permafrost, Greenland and Antarctic ice and atmospheric circulation changes.
Host Doubts Voluntary Degrowth Feasibility
- Kory expresses skepticism that society will degrow fast enough to return temperatures to 1.5°C or 1°C without geoengineering.
- He argues required changes would need mass global degrowth he finds politically unrealistic in coming decades.
Fast Versus Slow Tipping Responses Matter
- Tipping responses vary: some systems (coral reefs) respond quickly to short overshoots while others (polar ice sheets) respond slowly and may be more reversible.
- Current warming ~1.4°C already pushes warm-water reefs past thermal tipping points, risking large-scale loss unless temperatures rapidly return toward ~1°C.