
Money & Macro Talks China's mineral dominance: how the West should respond ft. Tobias Gehrke
Dec 8, 2025
Tobias Gehrke, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his insights on the critical minerals that are reshaping global economics. He explains how China gained dominance in refining and the implications of potential export restrictions. Gehrke emphasizes Europe's weakened position and the urgency for allied partnerships to scale mining and refining efforts. The conversation also highlights the importance of strategic stockpiling, innovation, and a balanced approach in addressing these geopolitical challenges.
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Cutoffs Could Cause Rapid Industrial Collapse
- A sudden Chinese cutoff of permanent magnets could halt car production and cascade into severe economic disruption.
- Tobias judges such a shock could be as bad or worse than Europe's Russian gas shock today.
Geo-Economics Changes The Policy Goal
- Geo-economics treats certain supply chains as strategic, not purely market-driven.
- States now accept efficiency trade-offs to secure access and resilience in critical sectors.
How China Built Dominance Over Decades
- China attracted Western know-how, cheap energy and lax environmental rules to build processing dominance over decades.
- That industrial policy created current dependencies other countries now face.
