Transmission Forecasting When the Grid Has No Margin for Error with Sean Kelly (Amperon)
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Jan 27, 2026 Sean Kelly, co-founder and CEO of Amperon, a former energy trader and power-plant operator turned AI forecaster. He discusses advanced weather-driven models for renewables, forecasting net demand and its market impacts, data quality differences across regions, and how rapid data center growth is reshaping grid planning and reliability.
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Ensemble Models For Robust Forecasts
- Ensemble multiple models and weather vendors rather than relying on one forecast.
- Retrain frequently and blend models to capture strengths and reduce single-model weaknesses.
Clients Made Huge Gains From Early Calls
- Amperon called the February 2021 price surge (Winter Storm Uri) on February 2, weeks before $9,000/MWh prices occurred.
- Some customers who hedged at low forward prices made over $100 million during the event.
Granular Weather Data Improves Load Forecasts
- High-quality, cleaned data and fine-grained weather points unlock better load forecasts.
- Population-weighted weather at ~40,000 points improved accuracy versus using a single airport station.