Bloomberg Talks Fed's Stephen Miran Talks Cutting Rates, Iran
Mar 4, 2026
Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor who advises on interest rates and policy, offers views on cutting rates amid Middle East tensions. He explains why headline oil shocks are often looked through. He discusses labor market cooling, what ‘modestly restrictive’ policy means, risks of undershooting inflation, private credit limits, and AI-driven job transitions.
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Headline Oil Shocks Are Often Transitory
- Stephen Miran treats the recent Middle East shock as largely headline inflation risk, not a core inflation driver unless oil spikes massively.
- He contrasts 2022's persistent inflation with today's different policy backdrop: less expansionary monetary and fiscal settings reduce pass-through risk.
Two Year Labor Cooling Trend Still Intact
- Miran emphasizes a two-plus year trend of gradual labor-market cooling that one or two strong payroll prints shouldn't overturn.
- He cites weak employment among young workers, those without college degrees, and long-term unemployed as signs of slack.
Markets Haven't Priced Higher Long‑Run Inflation
- He sees no durable move in long-run inflation expectations after recent events; short-run measures rose mechanically with oil but long tenors held steady.
- Thus Miran doesn't read markets as pricing higher long-term inflation risk yet.