CNBC's "Fast Money" Oracle Drops Back Down To Earth… And State Of the Consumer Ahead Of Holidays 11/12/25
Nov 12, 2025
Gil Loria, Head of Technology Research at DA Davidson, discusses Oracle's declining shares post-earnings and the implications for the AI sector. He highlights the risks associated with Oracle's debt and backlog, advising caution for other AI companies. The conversation shifts to the holiday retail outlook, with On Holdings showing strong results, indicating a vibrant consumer market as Christmas approaches. Loria offers insights on retail winners like Walmart and Amazon, setting the stage for a competitive holiday season.
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Hyperscalers Versus 'Bad Behavior' Builders
- Gil Loria called Oracle and CoreWeave examples of 'bad behavior' in the AI buildout versus responsible hyperscalers.
- He said hyperscalers have customers, cash, and pre-sold capacity, while Oracle overpromised backlog tied to OpenAI.
Value Anchor For Oracle
- Consider valuation compression for Oracle given lower-margin cloud growth and backlog uncertainty.
- Karen Finerman suggested a mid-20s P/E as a reasonable value anchor, implying buying nearer $200.
OpenAI Commitments Distort Demand
- OpenAI's opaque commitments inflated demand expectations across suppliers.
- Gil Loria warned a reckoning is coming where firms must renegotiate backlogs to reflect real spendable demand.