Ask Haviv Anything Episode 99: Are we winning?
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Mar 18, 2026 A deep look at Iran’s decapitated leadership and the shock to its military and economy. Discussion of a shift from missile battles to targeting energy infrastructure and refineries. Analysis of Iran’s fragmented local command structure and crowd-sourced intelligence from civilians. Examination of internet blackouts, shadow fleets, and whether endurance or collapse will decide the conflict.
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Mukawama Explains Iran's Survival Strategy
- Mukawama frames Iran's strategy: endurance and martyrdom are political force multipliers. The regime values survival as victory and sees suffering as purifying and strategic.
- This ideological asymmetry lets a weaker actor persist and inflict pain to outlast a stronger adversary, complicating quick regime collapse.
Hormuz Leverage Turns Into Iran's Vulnerability
- The Strait of Hormuz is a double-edged sword: closing it risks global shock but Iran depends on a single export hub at Harg Island. Coalition strikes on Harg could instantly cut revenue.
- Iran uses a risky shadow 'ghost fleet' to sell oil to China; a few targeted tanker strikes would immobilize that uninsured fleet and choke Iran's lifeline.
IRGC Control Created An Unstable Patronage Economy
- Iran's economy is collapsing into inflation and a voucher-barter system controlled by the IRGC and foundations. Currency dysfunctional; a new 1 million riyal bill was worth less than a dollar at issue.
- The IRGC and bonads control a huge shadow economy (30–50% GDP) through Khatam al-Anbiya and foundations, binding patronage to regime stability but making the state economically brittle.