HousingWire Daily Will Iran conflict make the Fed hawkish this week?
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Mar 16, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead housing analyst who tracks mortgage and market trends, joins to weigh in on the Fed meeting and Iran-related risks. He discusses why the Fed may hold rates, how Middle East tensions could raise energy and supply risks, and which rate thresholds would reshape 2026 housing forecasts. Short, sharp takes on geopolitical choke points and Fed caution.
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Fed Likely To Hold Because Inflation And Geopolitics Persist
- The Fed will almost certainly hold next week and not cut rates despite weak jobs data.
- Logan Mohtashami cites lingering inflation (PCE ~3.1%) and geopolitical risk from Iran as reasons the Fed won't rush cuts.
Choke Points Amplify Iran's Economic Leverage
- Geopolitical choke points make small actors powerful because low-cost weapons can disrupt oil transit.
- Logan notes cheap drones can hit a tanker and prolonged conflict raises input-cost risks for inflation.
How Logan Called The 2020 Recovery Date
- Logan recalls early 2020 data improving before COVID shut everything down and used that to date the recovery.
- He picked April 7, 2020 as the inflection because stress indices fell and 10-year yields were above 62 bps.