Razib Khan's Unsupervised Learning Megan McArdle: the follies of populism, impending fiscal crisis, and the whirlwind of AI
Apr 25, 2026
Megan McArdle, Washington Post columnist and former Economist/The Atlantic writer, tackles populism’s self-inflicted harms. She explores looming fiscal strain and who will shoulder rising taxes. They dig into state-level fiscal stress, wealthy flight, immigration’s role in innovation, and practical uses and social effects of AI.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
U.S. Fiscal Crisis Is Largely Locked In
- The U.S. is headed toward a fiscal crisis driven by large deficits, rising interest rates, and delayed reforms.
- Megan McArdle says missed reforms after the Great Recession and pandemic spending left few easy fixes and tougher choices now for Social Security and Medicare.
Prepare For Middle Class Tax Increases
- Expect tax increases to come mostly from the middle class, not just the wealthy, because revenue from taxing the very rich is limited.
- McArdle cites JCT work showing revenue flattens around 45–55% marginal rates and that closing deficits will require broader tax base changes.
Legacy Costs Trap Coastal States
- Northeastern states carry heavy legacy public-sector costs and overcompensated lower-skilled government roles.
- McArdle explains older, richer states built expensive pensions and services that are now hard to cut without political fallout.