Flirting with Models

Roni Israelov – High Frequency Factors, the Volatility Risk Premium, and Re-Thinking Financial Planning (S6E4)

47 snips
May 22, 2023
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INSIGHT

Put Protection Has Path‑Dependence Limits

  • Protective puts can fail to reduce long‑term peak‑to‑trough drawdowns due to path dependence and option maturities.
  • Even with fair option pricing, systematic evergreen protection can worsen long‑horizon drawdowns on average.
ANECDOTE

COVID Timing Made Puts Look Great

  • The COVID crash happened to align option expirations perfectly, making put protection look excellent in that singular event.
  • Roni notes that such timing luck exemplifies why protection outcomes vary widely across crises.
INSIGHT

VRP Is Diversifying But Conditionally Correlated

  • Volatility risk premium (VRP) strategies can be constructed beta‑neutral and historically uncorrelated to markets but are conditionally correlated during crashes.
  • Treat VRP as a diversifier with conditional downside coupling rather than a perfect hedge.
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