Daniel Davis Deep Dive Ukraine Russia US: FIRST TRILATERAL TALKS /Lt Col Daniel Davis
Jan 23, 2026
A breakdown of proposed Russia–US–Ukraine trilateral talks and what brought them to the table. Discussion of Russia’s four non‑negotiables and why earlier diplomatic chances were missed. Analysis of Western leverage, political pressures on Kyiv, and the stakes of possible territorial exchanges and political changes in Ukraine.
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Territorial Aims And Limited Swaps
- Davis reports Russian officials (Peskov, Ushakov) reaffirm June 2024 terms and territorial aims while offering limited territorial swaps.
- He notes Russia prefers holding only territories it can sustain without long garrisons.
Russia Wants Permanent Threat Removal
- Davis predicts persistent insurgency risks in occupied areas and says Russia prefers securing what it can hold long-term.
- He suggests Russia will demand demilitarization and government change to remove future threats.
Europe Quietly Shifts Toward Talks
- Davis observes European leaders are quietly shifting toward talks with Russia, with figures like Orban and others nudging the trend.
- He connects this to broader Western recalibration after tensions like the Greenland episode.