TG Watkins - Finding Opportunity in a Choppy Market: Comments On Homebuilders, Crypto, Oil, Gold

Mar 16, 2026

T.G. Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and editor of The Profit Pilot, offers technical market analysis and tactical trade ideas. He breaks down why the S&P has been choppy due to monetized hedges. He discusses geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict, potential bottoms in homebuilders and crypto, oil double-top risks, and why gold and silver may consolidate while NVDA and TSLA act as market barometers.

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INSIGHT

Big Players Monetize Hedges Causing Choppy Market

Large participants have been monetizing hedges which creates choppy down-and-up S&P action.
T.G. Watkins says funds cash puts on drops then reshort, preventing a full crash while keeping a downward bias.

INSIGHT

Narrative Shift On Iran Could Trigger Risk On

Market is pricing the Iran conflict and could snap higher if the narrative de-escalates.
Watkins links recent spikes (including crypto) to brief narrative improvements like press conferences and Strait of Hormuz news.

ADVICE

Trade Oversold Pockets Not Broad Indices

Trade oversold pockets and relative strength rather than broad market direction now.
Watkins is looking long XHB/NAIL and crypto leverage ETFs that show bottoming clues even while indices are weak.

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In this daily editorial, we are joined by TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and Editor of The Profit Pilot. TG provides a deep dive into the technical setups defining the current market landscape, characterized by aggressive volatility and shifting geopolitical narratives.

Key Discussion Points:

Monetizing the Hedges: TG explains the recent "choppy" price action in the S&P 500, where large participants are cashing in puts on market drops, preventing a total crash while maintaining a downward bias.
The Iran Conflict Impact: A look at how geopolitical tensions have driven market fear and how a potential de-escalation could trigger a massive "risk-on" rotation.
Bottoming Signals in Specific Sectors: Why the Homebuilders (XHB) and Cryptocurrency markets may be signaling a short-term bottom despite broader market weakness.
The Outlook for Commodities: An analysis of why Oil (USO) may be double-topping and why Gold (GDX) and Silver (SLV) might be due for a consolidation period as money rotates back into equities and tech.
Key Stocks to Watch: Tactical commentary on leading names like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) as barometers for overall market health.

Stocks and Symbols Mentioned: S&P 500 ($SPY), Homebuilders ($XHB, $NAIL), Oil ($USO), Gold ($GDX, $GDXJ), Silver ($SLV), Bitcoin ($BTC), Wolfspeed ($WOLF), Iren ($IREN), Cipher Mining ($CIFR), Hut 8 ($HUT), NVIDIA ($NVDA), Tesla ($TSLA).

Click here to visit the Simpler Trading website - https://www.simplertrading.com/

Click here to visit TG’s site - Profit Pilot - https://www.profit-pilot.com/

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