Daniel Davis Deep Dive Iran NOT COLLAPSING - No Matter the Hype /Alastair Crooke
May 11, 2026
Alastair Crooke, former British diplomat and MI6 officer who advises on Middle East strategy, breaks down why Iran is not collapsing. He outlines Iran's maximal demands, strategic leverage around Hormuz and oil reserves, and how asymmetric tactics and regional politics reshape power. He also discusses implications for U.S., Israel, China, and shifting regional alliances.
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Iran's Maximal Response And Leverage
- Iran's response to the US 14-point proposal was firm and non-conciliatory, rejecting handover of enriched uranium and demanding end to the war and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Alastair Crooke says Tehran believes it holds leverage through Hormuz and economic pressure, so it offered maximal terms expecting Washington to react.
Hormuz Closure Hits The West First
- Iran calculates closing Hormuz inflicts faster pain on the West because global inventories are low and oil is fungible, raising prices worldwide.
- Crooke notes China and Russia are less affected; China had near-normal April imports and large strategic reserves.
Trust Gap Makes Negotiation Unlikely
- Trump appears psychologically unable to offer legally binding guarantees Iran seeks, making a negotiated settlement unlikely.
- Crooke argues Iran demands treaty-level guarantees (UN or congressional) which Trump can't credibly deliver, and Israel would block them.