Wall Street Breakfast Inflation holds, but oil looms
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Mar 11, 2026 February CPI matched expectations, but a jump in crude after the U.S.-Israel conflict raises oil-driven inflation risk. Discussion of economists warning CPI could climb toward 3%+ and the Fed eyeing core PCE. Coverage of corporate moves from Campbell’s guidance cut to Starz’s poison pill and a $2B NVIDIA deal boosting AI cloud infrastructure. JPMorgan tightens lending tied to private-credit software loans.
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Inflation Steady Now But Geopolitics Could Push It Higher
- February CPI held at 2.4% headline and 2.5% core, matching expectations and signaling steady inflation for now.
- Kim Kahn warns these figures predate the U.S.-Israel war shock that sent crude from ~$65 to over $100, now around $87, risking higher inflation soon.
CPI Components Signal Upward Pressure Soon
- Economists expect headline CPI to jump: Joseph Brasuelas sees 3% year-over-year in March and 3.5%+ in April.
- Pantheon Macro highlights hot CPI components like a 7% airfare rise and software price increases feeding into core PCE.
Watch Consumer Staples After Earnings Guidances Change
- Monitor consumer staples like Campbell's after guidance cuts, since management lowered full-year organic sales and EPS outlooks.
- Campbell's now forecasts organic sales down 1% to 2% and adjusted EPS ~$220, below prior and consensus.