Peak Prosperity It’s Time to Believe Your Lying Eyes
Nov 28, 2025
The stock market is soaring while the real economy is struggling, sparking a discussion about the disconnect between the two. Consumer sentiment hits historic lows, revealing economic and political implications. Rising living costs and property tax spikes add to the stress faced by retirees. There's a critical examination of AI investments and their profitability amid market concentration. The effects of government payroll growth and fiscal responsibility are questioned, while historic valuations raise concerns about potential market declines.
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Property Tax Take Doubled In A Decade
- Chicago property tax revenue doubled over a decade while assessments rose 33%, creating unsustainable homeowner burdens.
- Public payrolls and pensions grew despite falling student counts, revealing fiscal misalignment.
October Deficit Highlights Fiscal Stress
- U.S. October fiscal deficit ran $284 billion, showing large ongoing federal overspending.
- High deficits and rising net interest costs are crowding future fiscal flexibility and increasing systemic risk.
Tech CapEx Is Propping Market Gains
- Tech CapEx is disproportionately propping S&P 500 growth while mid-cap 'real economy' firms lag.
- This concentration creates systemic risk if AI spending reverses or disappoints.