
Global Research Unlocked New payment tech unlikely to keep consumers from riding the rails
Mar 23, 2026
Matt O'Neill, a payments analyst who reopened coverage of card networks at BofA Global Research, explains why fears about new tech harming card rails are overblown. He discusses regulatory pressure on network valuations, how AI could change product discovery and agent-assisted buying, and why BNPL is evolving into longer-duration credit with growth and risk implications.
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Card Networks' Moat Faces Regulatory Threat
- Card networks earn high margins by sitting between issuers and merchants and collecting fees without taking credit risk.
- Regulatory fears like the Credit Card Competition Act threaten routing exclusivity and could erode co-brand economics with airlines, hotels, and retailers.
AI Threat To Rails Is Real But Far Off
- Technological disintermediation risks (AI agents, stablecoins) are real but likely distant because payments require trust, fraud protection, and dispute mechanisms.
- Matt O'Neill sees interim AI use mainly in product discovery rather than replacing established payment rails.
Value Services Drive Future Revenue Growth
- Networks grow via population, consumption, cash-to-card conversion, international expansion, and value-added services beyond core rails.
- Value-added services (fraud prevention, analytics, consulting) have been growing >20%, roughly 2x core network growth.
