From stalling home prices to new reforms: Will U.S. housing activity pick up?

18 snips

Mar 10, 2026

John Sim, head of Securitized Products Research at J.P. Morgan, brings mortgage-market and housing supply-demand expertise. He walks through recent price slowdowns and regional risks. He breaks down current mortgage and ARM dynamics, how pending bank capital reforms could shave rates, and thresholds that might revive sales. Rental market fatigue and single-family versus multifamily trends also come up.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Mortgage Rate Lock-Ins Cripple Supply

Mortgage-rate lock-ins have materially constrained supply and demand since 2022.
About 80% of borrowers had sub-4% rates in 2022, leaving many unwilling to list homes after rates rose ~300 bps.

INSIGHT

Basel Changes Could Trim Mortgage Rates

Potential Basel bank capital rule changes could lower bank mortgage pricing power and reduce consumer mortgage rates.
John Sim estimates lower risk weights might allow banks to cut mortgage rates by as much as 25–45 basis points in practice.

ADVICE

Watch Small Rate Moves To Predict Sales

Expect home-buying activity to respond sharply to rate declines; every 20 bps matters.
John Sim suggests 30-year rates near 5.5% could push existing home sales above 4 million and 4.5% could reach ~5 million.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

In this episode of Making Sense, Anthony Paolone, co-head of U.S. Real Estate Stock Research, and John Sim, head of Securitized Products Research, offer their take on the U.S. housing market. They examine current supply-demand dynamics, regional price trends and mortgage rates, which have remained elevated since 2022. Where are home prices headed, and how might new reforms alter the wider outlook? Plus, how are rental markets faring amid growing “rent fatigue”?

This episode was recorded on March 2, 2026.

This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.