New Books Network Ladder or Lottery? Gary Hoover on the Consequences of Broken Economic Promises
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Apr 20, 2026 Gary Hoover, economist and Murphy Institute director, explores whether economic life is a ladder or a lottery. He recounts personal roots, critiques “deserving” narratives, and examines broken promises in education, credit, housing, and policy. He links failed promises to protests from Occupy to the Arab Spring and considers student debt and AI’s disruption.
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Data Shows The Poor Are Getting Poorer
- Hoover shows US income distribution worsened: the bottom 20% now share ~3% of income, down from ~4.3% in 1968.
- He uses a 100-people/$100 allocation example to illustrate rising concentration at the top.
Most Poverty Programs Only Skim The Surface
- Anti-poverty policies often only nudge people just above the poverty line rather than addressing entrenched poverty.
- Hoover calls this skim-along-the-top effect, leaving hardcore poor largely unmoved by past initiatives.
Kuznets Curve Has Broken In Modern Economies
- Kuznets' expectation that development first raises then lowers inequality has stalled; modern innovation concentrates wealth and inequality remains high.
- Hoover argues filtering of technology no longer compresses incomes as once hoped.
