ChinaTalk Party Time! Jon Czin on US-China in 2025 and 2026
45 snips
Jan 19, 2026 
Jon Czin, a former senior China analyst and current Brookings Institution fellow, dives into the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations. He explores the surprising calm between the two nations amid global upheaval and the potential triggers for chaos in 2026. Czin discusses Trump's resurgence and its implications on China’s strategy, contrasting past trade wars with a more prepared Beijing. He also examines how the U.S. has misread China's leverage, and provides insights into Taiwan tensions and broader geopolitical stakes.
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On-The-Ground China Visit
- Jon Czin recounts touring Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou during Liberation Day.
- He heard officials and businesses express preparedness rather than anger toward trade escalation.
Plan For Long-Term Economic Friction
- Assume both sides can and will weaponize economic interdependence; plan for prolonged mutual pain.
- Develop long-term supply solutions; don't expect quick fixes on rare earths or mining.
Stringing Along For Leverage
- Beijing's likely strategy was to string Trump along toward midterms to gain leverage.
- China prefers negotiating over forcing grand macroeconomic concessions.
