One Rental At A Time BREAKING NEWS: Homeowners Under Water SPIKES 62%
Feb 23, 2026
They unpack the spike in homeowners underwater and why context changes the headline number. They trace housing trends from building permits to pending sales and local rent recoveries. They touch on global trade tensions, Mexico travel fallout, and data problems at the BLS. They also discuss Fed remarks, corporate hiring swings, and market speculation risks.
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Long Run Average Calms Short Term Noise
- Historical context matters when judging economic signals like underwater mortgages.
- The long-run 50-year average for homeowners underwater is about 2.5%, so current levels near 2.1% are not alarming.
Check Absolute Changes Not Just Percentages
- Don't accept sensational percent headlines at face value; dig into absolute changes and base rates.
- The host warns listeners not to "drink poison" from doomers who use percent tricks to scare people.
Falling BLS Response Rates Threaten Data Quality
- BLS survey response rates have fallen, undermining data quality and potentially biasing official stats.
- Response rate dropped to 64%, a 30% decline since 2009, leaving missing-data adjustments to the BLS.